![]() ![]() Say, the docter tells me: there is only a 5% chance that you have that life threatening disease, given the test result, so you can go home. Sometimes it might be life changing - if it was a test for some disease, I would never be satisfied with a 5% risk. ![]() That is your result! What significance level to chose depends on the situation. However, before I confronted him, I think I would observe another week to get more certain knowledge.Ī lot of talking, sorry! My point here: you get the probability from the test. On the other hand, if I knew the shop owner was sloppy with numbers, and had a tendency to lie, etc., then I would be more likely to reject the hypothesis on basis of my observations. I mean, after all, 5% corresponds to about 1/20 - it is not a veeery rare observation. ![]() If I generally trusted the shop owner, and new that he had kept track of customers for a long period, and was a clever guy, then I would still believe his hypothesis. The 5% significance criteria is a subjective choice. So, if the hypothesis is right and you make observations for for a weak, then there is almost 5% chance that you see what you see or something even less likely. This is the question you answer with the test, and you can calculate that probability exactly (or you can use tables). what percentage of customers come each day), what is then the probability to see the given observations (30 on monday, 14 on Tuesday, etc) or something more unlikely?" The question you answer with the test can be rephrased like this: "if the shop owner's theory is right (i.e. ![]()
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